WASHINGTON — Two early showdowns on spending and debt will signal whether the new Congress can find common ground despite its partisan divisions or whether it’s destined for gridlock and brinkmanship that could threaten the nation’s economic health.
Not all of the bickering in the 112th Congress that convenes Wednesday will be between Republicans and Democrats. House Republicans, back in power after four years in the minority, will include numerous freshmen whose unyielding stands on the deficit, in particular, could severely test soon-to-be Speaker John Boehner’s ability to bridge differences and pass major bills.
His first big challenge will come in February, when Congress must pass a huge spending bill to keep the government running. Many House Republicans — veterans and newcomers alike — have pledged to cut discretionary domestic spending by up to $100 billion.
Even if they agree on a plan, it probably will be changed by the Senate, where Democrats will hold 53-47 edge. And President Barack Obama can veto almost any bill he opposes during the next two years.
Before Boehner, R-Ohio, deals with Democrats’ objections, he may have trouble getting his own 241-member caucus to agree on what to cut, and how deeply. Republicans have a history of promising far more cuts in spending than they deliver. Some conservative activists and commentators are tired of it.
“They love to cut taxes but cannot bring themselves to cut spending,” Kevin Williamson wrote in National Review Online. “It’s eat dessert first and leave the spinach on the table.”
Several freshman GOP lawmakers are aligned with the tea party movement, which champions spending cuts and balanced budgets. But even tea party activists are unable or unwilling to name sizable government programs they are willing to cut, said Duke University political scientist Mike Munger. He ran for North Carolina governor as a libertarian and has met with many tea partyers.
Passing a major spending bill may look easy when compared with the challenge Congress will face in the spring: raising the federal debt ceiling, an exercise that’s anathema to some die-hard conservatives. Economists and scores of political leaders say the alternatives are much worse: Let the nation default on its debts, which could trigger a global recession, or drastically cut federal spending to levels neither party has imagined.
The current debt ceiling is $14.3 trillion, enacted in February. The federal debt, nearly $13.9 trillion, grows by $4 billion a day.
“Where the rubber will hit the road will be on the debt limit,” said John Feehery, a Republican adviser and former top House aide. “What kind of budget concessions will Obama agree to in exchange for keeping the government functioning?”
Lawmakers might buy some time by passing temporary extensions of a budget and a higher debt ceiling. Eventually they must work out a long-term solution. Obama has made it clear that Republicans share responsibility for finding one.