When Texas Tech runs

Tech ranks 94th in rushing offense, Baylor 88th in rushing defense. Running backs Kenny Williams (690 yards), Eric Stephens (402) and Sadale Foster (390) have had their moments, but the Red Raiders are averaging 91 rushing yards the last five games. MLB Bryce Hager is the Bears’ top tackler, and nickel back Ahmad Dixon and S Sam Holl are two of the team’s top playmakers.

Advantage: Even

When Texas Tech passes

Tech hasn’t scored more than 24 points in eight of its last 13 conference games, but maybe the remedy is a Baylor unit that ranks 118th in pass defense, 119th in total defense and 114th in scoring defense. WRs Darrin Moore (68 receptions, 762 yards, 11 touchdowns) and Eric Ward (66-861-10) have five 100-yard performances in the last four games, whereas Bears CBs Joe Williams intercepted Kansas State’s Collin Klein twice last week in the Bears’ 52-24 upset. The knee injury Tech OT LaAdrian Waddle suffered last week could scramble the lineup and make QB Seth Doege vulnerable to protection breakdowns. Last week, Baylor was credited with 10 quarterback pressures, four from WLB Eddie Lackey.

Advantage: Texas Tech

When Baylor runs

Tech has sprung leaks, allowing 237 rushing yards a game the last five weeks. Baylor could expose the unit more with the Big 12’s third best rushing offense. The Bears keep opponents guessing with four options: workmanlike Glasco Martin (641 yards) and Jarred Salubi (437), home-run threat Lache Seastrunk (560) and QB Nick Florence (409). Seastrunk ran for 185 yards and Martin 113 last week against Kansas State. Tech’s Kerry Hyder continues to lead Big 12 DTs in tackles for loss (11.5) and sacks (five), but when Tech played S Cody Davis heavy in run support last week, the pass defense suffered.

Advantage: Baylor

When Baylor passes

Baylor WR Terrance Williams (82 receptions, 1,518 yards, 11 touchdowns) is having one of the top seasons in major-college history, and defenses that focus solely on him can get hurt by Lanear Sampson (43-525-5) and Tevin Reese (42-743-7). Tech DE Dartwan Bush (five sacks) will try to disrupt QB Nick Florence, who leads the nation in total offense at 383.8 yards per game. Florence has thrown 13 interceptions, though the Red Raiders haven’t come up with a turnover in four games. Opponents have lit up Tech lately with big plays, a bad sign considering Baylor leads the nation in plays of 30-plus yards (42) and 40-plus yards (24).

Advantage: Baylor

Special teams

Tech is coming off a disastrous day in which it allowed two blocked punts, one returned for a touchdown in a 59-21 loss at Oklahoma State. The Red Raiders also have allowed two blocked field goals in the last four weeks. Punt-returner Austin Zouzalik, who ranks fourth in the Big 12, has been reliable. The kickers are about even, Tech’s Ryan Bustin having converted 14 of 20 and Baylor’s Aaron Jones 13 of 19. Both teams rank in the bottom five nationally in punt-return yardage defense, Baylor yielding 12.9 yards per punt return and Tech 13.6 yards.

Advantage: Baylor

How we see it

Staff writer Don Williams:

Baylor 49, Texas Tech 38

Staff writer Nick Kosmider:

Baylor 44, Texas Tech 38